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基于双层Blending注意力机制的股票价格预测模型

Blending-ATT-Ridge: Two-Level Blending Attention–Based Temporal Trend Forecasting Model for Stock Data

  • 摘要: 金融市场序列受噪声、非平稳性与突发事件影响显著,导致股票趋势预测在特征表达与泛化稳定性方面仍面临挑战。现有部分方法虽已引入多指标输入,但特征筛选与融合策略的系统性不足,难以有效刻画市场波动特征。针对上述问题,本文提出基于双层Blending注意力机制的股票价格预测模型框架 Blending-ATT-Ridge。首先,该框架通过特征工程构建并筛选多个金融技术指标;其次,采用基于注意力机制的BiLSTM与 GRU分别建模时序依赖,并输出预测分量;最后,通过正则化融合进行加权组合,以抑制过拟合。在港股名企真实股票数据集上的实验结果表明,本文方法在平均绝对误差MAE、平均绝对百分比误差MAPE、均方根误差RMSE与决定系数R2等指标上的预测性能显著优于其他模型,并在不同市场环境下保持稳定泛化能力,验证了多步骤特征工程及集成策略在股票趋势预测中的有效性与鲁棒性。

     

    Abstract: Financial market series are significantly influenced by noise, non-stationarity, and unexpected events, posing challenges to stock trend prediction in terms of feature representation and generalization stability. Although some existing methods have incorporated multi-indicator inputs, the systematic feature selection and fusion strategies remain insufficient, limiting the effective characterization of market volatility patterns. To address these issues, this paper proposes an two-level Blending attention-based temporal trend forecasting model named Blending-ATT-Ridge. First, feature engineering is applied to construct and select multiple financial technical indicators. Then, attention-based BiLSTM and GRU are employed to model temporal dependencies separately and generate prediction components. Finally, regularization-based weighted fusion is adopted to integrate these components and mitigate overfitting. Experimental results on real stock datasets from leading Hong Kong-listed enterprises demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms other models across metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R2). Furthermore, it maintains stable generalization capability under different market conditions, validating the effectiveness and robustness of multi-stage feature engineering and ensemble strategies in stock trend prediction.

     

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