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耦合多源不确定性的虚拟电厂极端场景:分类框架、生成机制与影响评估综述

Extreme Scenarios of Virtual Power Plants Coupled with Multi-Source Uncertainties: A Review of Classification Frameworks, Generation Mechanisms, and Impact Assessment

  • 摘要: 虚拟电厂(Virtual Power Plants, VPPs)作为新型能源调控模式,其稳定性在极端场景下面临严峻挑战。本文系统综述了虚拟单纯极端场景的分类框架、生成方法与影响评估。首先,从来源机制、影响范围和时间尺度构建三维分类框架,揭示极端事件的异质性特征。其次,梳理了极端场景生成方法:基于物理模型的蒙特卡洛模拟、故障树分析、马尔可夫链及多物理域仿真;基于数据驱动的极值理论、生成对抗网络和强化学习;以及融合物理约束与数据驱动的混合方法。进一步提出评估指标和验证手段,确保生成场景的工程适用性。最后,指出当前面临数据稀缺、计算效率低等挑战,并展望跨学科融合、大语言模型辅助建模等未来方向,为提升虚拟电厂韧性提供理论支撑。

     

    Abstract: As a novel energy regulation paradigm, the stability of virtual power plants (Virtual Power Plants, VPPs) faces severe challenges under extreme scenarios. This paper systematically reviews the classification frameworks, generation methods, and impact assessment of VPP extreme scenarios. Firstly, a three-dimensional classification framework is constructed based on source mechanisms, impact scope, and temporal scales, revealing the heterogeneous characteristics of extreme events. Secondly, extreme scenario generation methods are categorized: physics-based approaches including Monte Carlo simulation, fault tree analysis, Markov chains, and multi-physics-domain simulation; data-driven approaches encompassing extreme value theory, generative adversarial networks, and reinforcement learning; and hybrid methods integrating physical constraints with data-driven techniques. Evaluation metrics and verification methodologies are further proposed to ensure the engineering applicability of generated scenarios. Finally, current challenges such as data scarcity and low computational efficiency are identified, and future directions including interdisciplinary integration and large language model-assisted modeling are envisioned, providing theoretical support for enhancing VPP resilience.

     

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