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基于双层Blending注意力机制的股票价格预测模型

Blending-ATT-Ridge: Two-Level Blending Attention–Based Temporal Trend Forecasting Model for Stock Data

  • 摘要: 金融市场序列受噪声、非平稳性与突发事件影响显著,导致股票趋势预测在特征表达与泛化稳定性方面仍面临挑战。现有方法多依赖单一技术指标或价格序列,难以有效刻画投资者对市场波动的影响,并且其预测性能和稳定性均有待提升。针对上述问题,本文提出注意力驱动的集成时序框架 Blending-ATT-Ridge:首先特征工程构建并筛选多个金融技术指标,随后采用BiLSTM-ATT 与 GRU-ATT 分别建模时序依赖并输出预测分量,最终通过 Ridge 正则化融合进行加权组合以抑制过拟合。实验结果表明,在港股名企真实股票数据集上,Blending-ATT-Ridge在MAE、MAPE 与 RMSE 等指标上取得了显著优于其他模型的预测性能,并在不同市场环境下保持稳定泛化能力,验证了多步骤特征工程及集成策略在股票趋势预测中的有效性与鲁棒性。

     

    Abstract: Financial market series are significantly influenced by noise, non-stationarity, and unexpected events, posing challenges to stock trend prediction in terms of feature representation and generalization stability. Existing methods predominantly rely on single technical indicators or price series, which inadequately capture the impact of investor behavior on market fluctuations, and their predictive performance and stability remain limited. To address these issues, this paper proposes an attention-driven integrated time-series framework named Blending-ATT-Ridge. First, feature engineering is applied to construct and select multiple financial technical indicators. Then, BiLSTM-ATT and GRU-ATT are employed to model temporal dependencies separately and generate prediction components. Finally, Ridge regularization-based weighted fusion is adopted to integrate these components and mitigate overfitting. Experimental results on real stock datasets from leading Hong Kong-listed enterprises demonstrate that Blending-ATT-Ridge significantly outperforms other models across metrics such as MAE, MAPE, and RMSE. Furthermore, it maintains stable generalization capability under different market conditions, validating the effectiveness and robustness of multi-stage feature engineering and ensemble strategies in stock trend prediction.

     

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